History repeating before history's been written.

Joe Hockey would probably make a decent Opposition Leader/Prime Minister. He is a convivial, likeable man. His passion for touch rugby over Dietrich Bonhoeffer makes him a far more palatable dinner guest than our current PM.

But reports that a move is underfoot to have him as the ‘unifying,’ ‘compromise’ candidate in a Liberal leadership spill likely at some point over the next few days are nothing short of bizarre.

Those who think that this debacle is the manifestation of tensions about an emissions trading scheme or leadership styles are wrong. This is a debate about the future ideological direction of the Liberal party. Will it be the classically liberal; will it be progressive? Or will the forces of neo-conservatism win out?

My money is on the latter. Which is why Joe Hockey would be such a bizarre choice. Hockey is classically Liberal. Hockey is further to the left than Malcolm on many issues. Hockey’s immediate predecessor in the seat of North Sydney was a maverick, left-ish independent – Hockey only managed to wrestle the seat back for the Liberals upon his retirement.

So, assuming Hockey runs for – and wins – the leadership, won’t the Liberals be in the same position they were in before? The result would be either (1) a party of conservative malcontents lining up behind a proper liberal leader, or (2) a leader betraying his principles and ideological beliefs so that he has a better shot at the premiership. Either result would be a disservice to the Australian people and to the detriment of Australian political discourse. History appears to be repeating itself before the tragic history of Turnbull's betrayal has been written. How odd.

I should not grumble too much. This cloud of a leadership spill does indeed have a silver lining: Julie Bishop’s going to get the boot.